Here's what makes me think the defensibility is weaker than it looks: Uber's driver retention is historically brutal. Churn is high. Drivers are rational—they'll multi-app or switch if the math changes. If someone funded a competitor specifically to offer 80/20 splits instead of Uber's current model, you'd see defection happen quick. Not universal, but enough to crack the network effect.
What's your read on whether anyone has the capital and patience to actually try this? Because the subsidy arbitrage is over, so it'd have to be built on fundamentals, not just outspending them.
Here's what makes me think the defensibility is weaker than it looks: Uber's driver retention is historically brutal. Churn is high. Drivers are rational—they'll multi-app or switch if the math changes. If someone funded a competitor specifically to offer 80/20 splits instead of Uber's current model, you'd see defection happen quick. Not universal, but enough to crack the network effect.
What's your read on whether anyone has the capital and patience to actually try this? Because the subsidy arbitrage is over, so it'd have to be built on fundamentals, not just outspending them.